Luckiest Mofo, Ever

So there's this guy in Albuquerque, New Mexico, named Larry Trujillo.



He likes his local AAA baseball team, the Albuquerque Isotopes.



He likes them a lot, as a matter of fact - last year, they gave him a brand new Nissan Xterra.



See, he went to a game, and signed up for a random drawing at the park. He won the drawing - about 60 people entered - and what he won was a guarantee that he would get a car if a particular player hit a grand slam home run in a particular inning.



Now, that's a good deal for the company sponsoring the contest, because the likelihood of that actually happening approaches the likelihood of life spontaneously forming on the primordial earth by a good bit.



To give you an idea: the odds of winning the drawing were 60:1. that gave him a chance at an inning - 9:1, a player - 18:1 (two teams of nine players,) and a particular play. To get the likelihood of the grand slam - very loosely - here we go.



162 games in the regular season, times 9 innings, is 1458 innings. Each inning features an average of about 10 at bats, so 14580. That means on any particular play, a base hit is about 3:1, depending on the batter and pitcher's relative skills. Now, for a grand slam to take place, that 3:1 has to happen 3 times, and THEN the homer has to be hit. Last year, out of an approximate 14580 at-bats, MLB recorded 132 grand slams, or 110.45:1 against.





Which means that when Mr. Trujillo got his car, he had a 1 in 60 chance of having a 1 in 9 chance of having a 1 in 18 chance of having a 1 in 110 chance of getting it, or a 0.000000093 percent chance of his getting it. Looked at another way, the odds of him getting the car last year were 1069200:1 against.



So this year, when he drove his year-old Nissan to the game and won a brand-new Ford Escape, he was a bit surprised.



This might be because the odds against doing it twice are a million to one against having a million to one chance, or 1,000,000,000,000:1 against.  More accurately,  1,143,188,640,000:1 against. That's trillions, dude. Luckiest mofo, ever.



Wanna pick my lotto numbers, Mr. Trujillo?





[*Edited to add: none of this takes into account the likelihood of him winning in CONSECUTIVE YEARS, which was somewhat less likely than apes evolving into humans.]