Danger! Danger, Will Robinson! Part One Of Two... HDTV

This is a two-part entry, which I have posted in REVERSE ORDER, so that part 2 comes before this one. This is so that you can read it top to bottom if you really want to. If not, they will both be highlighted, so you can read part one and come back to part two whenever you want.

Fair warning given!

Some of you - not many of you - may own an HDTV. If so, you may have realized, or you may not, just how very, very many problems you've let yourself in for.

Thank goodness I'm here to break it down for you.

First, I'll begin by saying that I really hope all the issues can be worked out. HDTV doesn't make a whole lot of difference on a TV I would be able to afford, but on a big screen, it's remarkable, and the introduction of gaming consoles capable of HD resolutions makes it even more so.

More on that later. Don't worry, we'll talk about Sony.

The bad thing is, I don't think that they can be worked out, and it's because of a gigantic collaboration of the worst minds ever allowed into corporate boardrooms, anywhere, ever.

I've written before, here and on Xeno's Paradox, about the entertainment industry's ongoing war against the consumer. I've said before that it was going to bite them on the butt eventually.

I believe that it's in the process of doing so, and I will tell you why.

For a new technology - in this case HD - to reach global adoption as the accepted standard, it requires several factors to be in place.

First is a perceived need for an upgrade; second is a clear improvement over the existing technology; third is price; fourth is ease of adoption and use; and fifth is availability.

Sadly, HDTV meets none of these.

First, the overwhelming majority of consumers are loathe to simply toss out electronics that function as desired. My TV works just fine; I don't need a new one. For 5 years I've seen TV's with better picture, crisper sound, bigger screens, and more features, but I have yet to see anything impressive enough that I'm willing to replace a perfectly functional device, at great expense, for the sake of the improvement. I think most folks would agree with me, thus taking care of factor number one, perceived need for an upgrade.

Second, frankly, unless you can afford a big screen, say 35+ inches, the improvement in visible picture quality for most viewers simply isn't that great. Certainly not a big enough difference to cause people to casually throw out electronics still in their useful life; factor number two isn't present either.

Third, price, is the biggest barrier, both to the companies manufacturing the product, and to the consumer. The companies are desperate to recoup expenses from research and development, which while understandable is shortsighted. The consumer is simply not going to pay an exorbitant price, by and large, for anything, unless the product is a huge, glaring improvement over their existing product choices. See points one and two, above. HDTV isn't such an improvement, and as such is simply not worth the prices the manufacturers are asking. The price tag for an HDTV starts in many cases at $500 - already a hefty chunk for most people these days - and goes up wildly as the screen size increases. There are HDTVs available at smaller sizes, and prices, true; but again, HDTV doesn't really LOOK like much until you get to the really crazy screen sizes. Point three is a killer for HDTV, because unless the companies can get their pricing under control, they will never get market penetration. Right now they're at about 5% - in other words, 5% of homes that own a television, own an HDTV. That's not even as good as the percentage of Macintoshes to PC's, and an HDTV is an actual improvement, as opposed to an alternative. Factor number three isn't on HDTV's side, either.

Fourth is one that may stop HDTV altogether. The entertainment industry is seemingly totally incapable of understanding that when you make a product so secure as to prevent piracy, you make it so secure that your customer basically cannot use it either. The result is that even at this late date - HDTV's have been in the pipeline for several years now - the music and movie companies still cannot agree on a standard for the copy protection to be used with it. Of course, the real reason for the copy protection isn't piracy; it is SPECIFICALLY to make content difficult to use, so the companies can sell it to you more than once.

Not coincidentally, this is a problem for more than just HDTV; it is also a problem for HD-DVD and Blu-Ray, as well as future audio formats, game consoles, you name it.

Ease of use is simple. Ease of use is when you pull an item out of the box, plug it in, and it works as advertised. Ease of adoption is when you pull it out of the box, plug it in, and it works with everything else you already have set up. This is also called interoperability. HDTV isn't like that. In order to get the most out of an HD product, you must first ensure that it will interoperate with the other electronics you have, which is mostly not the case. Again, largely, this is due to content protection of one stripe or another.

Some of you may remember buying a Playstation 2, hooking it up to your TV through your VCR, playing a DVD - and realizing that for it to play properly, the PS2 had to be hooked directly to your TV, or the content protection would screw with your picture and sound fairly dramatically.

This phenomenon is far worse with HD products, in addition to the fact that you have to buy special cabling, most likely a new DVD player, and perhaps a new stereo; the older equipment will simply be viewed as "insecure" by the HD equipment, and will not function correctly.

But there's a bigger problem of which I think many early adopters are as yet unaware. The copy protection is still changing. This means that once a final standard is agreed upon by the media companies, anyone who bought a product earlier than that standard will be UNABLE to use movies recorded since that date; watch TV aired after that date; record media using that equipment after that date; nothing.

Those early adopters will likely find themselves the proud owners of a gigantic, multiple-thousand-dollar, standard resolution television.

Or computer monitor; or, in the case of gamers, XBOX360 or Playstation 3.

More on this in part two...

However, ease of use and adoption is simply not present in these products, and whether or not they realize it, the media companies are doing everything they can to make HDTV fail, despite having legislated it into required purchasing. Yes, I said "legislated" and "required." See, in 1997, Congress passed a law requiring all broadcasters to be broadcasting in digital; its purpose was to eventually "close the analog hole," both by requiring that new consumer electronics be all digital, and by requiring that broadcasters gradually eliminate analog broadcasting.

I don't think they realize the effect this will have on the public's perception of them once this happens. See, once that shift is done, your old, but working TV will no longer be able to receive a signal. At all. You will get nothing but snow until *drumroll please* you buy an HDTV. They are counting on this to spur sales, and therefore adoption, of HDTV as the de facto standard. However, there's one flaw in their plan. A simple - and available for as little as $30 - set-top box can down-rez the HD signal, and convert it for use on your standard television.

I'd bet on the overwhelming majority of consumers opting for this, rather than spending hundreds or thousands for a new HDTV.

So would the cable and satellite companies; they've been quietly putting the circuits to do the conversion into their set-top boxes for the last 5 years or so. This is because they don't want their customers inconvenienced, something the media companies don't really seem to understand. Factor number four - ease of use and adoption - is simply not present for HDTV.

Fifth is a whole issue unto itself. Availability has been an issue for every HD product so far. See, for people to take one home, it not only has to be affordable, but the store has to have one. There are an awful lot of people who will take an inferior, but available, product home with them, as opposed to a backorder slip for a superior product. Factor five works against HDTV as well.

And, beyond all the issues with HDTV itself, there's the format war between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray.

This is what leads us into our discussion of Sony in Part Two.