My Election Predictions for 2008

Rating:	★★★★
Category:	Other

In late August of last year, I posted an article which was mainly about other things, but included a set of 9 straight-out predictions for the 2008 election, and one prediction that depended on a ballot initiative in California.

You may have read it; you may not. If you'd like to, it's here.

But how'd I do? That's the real question. How exactly did I perform as a political prognosticator?

Well, let's see.

I predicted:

1. There will be constant threats of terrorist action - they've already begun - running all the way through the election, at which time they will mysteriously vanish.
   



2. There will be sex scandals "discovered" about each and every Republican candidate.
   



3. There will be financial misdealings present in the portfolio of every single candidate with poll numbers over 1%. Don't worry, as we close on election time I will break out the hard numbers to back this one up.
   



4. EVERY SINGLE PERSON RUNNING will get "swift-boated" by some group or another.
   



5. Regardless of who is elected, regardless of party, regardless of publically announced sentiment, or position, or support - or lack thereof - for the war in Iraq; the United States will not pull out the bulk of our troops from Iraq in the next 3 years. REMEMBER I SAID THIS. Especially after the election. Watch as all the pre-election rhetoric turns into so much hot air, and vanishes.
   



6. The only two candidates running who have decent platforms will not get their party nominations. (That'd be Bill Richardson of the Dems, and Ron Paul of the GOP.)
   



7. At the end of the election, no matter who wins, or by how much, the Democrats will spawn a horde of lawsuits.
   



8. At the end of the election, no matter who wins, or by how much, there will have been overwhelming election fraud, across the board, in every major voting district. By both sides.
   



9. No matter the outcome of the election, there will be a slew of angry rants by people with tiny brains, demanding the removal of the electoral college, as though that would somehow improve things.
   

There was one more, which was that IF California passed the initiative to split their electoral votes by the percentages of the popular vote - which they didn't - the Republican candidate would win. That prediction is a moot point, as the initiative didn't pass.

So, let's look at the 9 "main" prognostications, hmmmm?

#'s 1, 3, and 4 came true almost right away, and I posted about them here.

#'s 2, 6, and 9 followed close on their heels, and I posted about them here.

#5 got a rumbling on the horizon long ago; I edited the original post to contain a link, but that link has since gone away. C'est la vie; I have another.

So, what are we missing? Well, #'s 7 and 8, of course, that there would be a horde of lawsuits, and that there would also have been massive bipartisan voter fraud.

Number 7 was flatly wrong, apparently. From my exalted vantage point in August of 2007, I didn't foresee the margin of victory for any candidate being high enough to avoid it, and I was mistaken.

Number 8, however... well, let's see? Has there been voter fraud? There certainly has on the Democratic side; there are lawsuits in 12 states about it. On the Republican side, however, it hasn't been as apparent. So, I'll call that a 50/50.

So, how'd I make out?

At the end of the election, the predictions I made a year and three months ago fall out with 7 straight-out correct; one half and half; and one that was wrong.

...It's the Republicans that are suing everyone, not the Democrats.

So, right now, I'm batting .833.

I'm gonna call that a better win-loss record than anyone you'll see on TV.